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AFRO-NETS> Girls six times more likely to be infected than boys
Girls six times more likely to be infected than boys
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Claudio wrote an essay in which he reminded us of some of the limits
of statistics:
> ... it is notable that the seventeenth century term for what
> is now called statistics was "political arithmetic".[...]
In the Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report - Fri, 27 Apr 2001, it is re-
ported that: <<Clinton said that HIV/AIDS is "100% preventable" with
the use of proper prevention methods and asked African leaders to
help end the "stigma of AIDS.">>
Meanwhile Kofi Annan said: <<At present, in sub-Saharan Africa, ado-
lescent girls are six times more likely to be infected than boys.
That is something which should make all of us African men deeply
ashamed and angry.>>
100% versus six times, this is a contradictory situation, isn't it?
Statistics can help us ascertain the plausibility of hypotheses, yet
we need to make these first.
The secretary general is pointing to men's sexual behaviour. In the
news, we have learned of two unrelated stories that tell us something
about men: (a) the sperm of a US president was found on the dress of
a girl much younger than him, (b) a German tennis champion is father
of a daughter after a one night encounter with a top model.
Did Bill Clinton use condoms? Did Boris Becker use condoms?
The prophylactic industry in the 80s focused research on the capacity
of condom membranes to stop a virus.
The only research paper I was aware of at that time which established
the benefit of the use of condoms by men was a US marine trial with
"licensed hostesses" in Olongapo:
An Estimate of the Risk of Men Acquiring Gonorrhoea by
Sexual Contact with Infected Females
Holmes KK, Johnson DW, Trostle HJ
(1970) American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 91, Iss. 2,
p.170-174
But this study used 411 enlisted Navy men of an US aircraft carrier
during a short six-day "liberty period". Is this comparable with an
old men having spontaneous sex with a younger girl? Why do Navy men
use condoms, why older men don't?
If young girls are six times more likely to be infected than boys,
then doesn't it somehow reflect another fact, namely that old men are
six times more likely to have sex with girls, than old women having
sex with boys?
Shouldn't the former US President try to identify a new hypothesis so
that the other old men can fulfil the so-called "100%" prevention?
Should older men receive a training to use condoms? Could Bill Clin-
ton suggest what prevents older men from using them?
Perhaps we should review the literature that deals with this issue. I
reproduce a Letter to the Editor that appeared in (1986) JAMA, Vol.
256, Iss. 11, p. 1442:
Condoms and the Prevention of AIDS
To the Editor. -- We were interested in reading the letter of
Conant et al.[1] regarding their laboratory data that condoms
prevent transmission of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
(AIDS)-associated virus. It is reassuring that retroviruses cannot
pass through latex, synthetic skin, or natural lamb skin. The
use of condoms has become cornerstone for safe sexual
activity, being recommended to prevent transmission of the
AIDS-associated retrovirus. We feel that other factors
regarding condoms are much more likely to result in failure
to prevent transmission than the virus actually passing
through the prophylactic. These factors have already been
well substantiated by the 10% failure rate per year of
condoms to prevent pregnancies[2].
It is not clear whether gay men are more motivated to
employ condoms to prevent the transmission of AIDS-
associated retrovirus than heterosexual couples are
likely to use condoms as a means of birth control. The
appropriate use of condom, including application before
preejactulatory fluid appears, making sure that the
condom does not fall off or tear, and use of considerable
lubricant and spermicidal jellies, should all be
recommended when condoms are used in attempt
to prevent the transmission of the AIDS-associated
retrovirus. We feel that these human factors and
mechanical failures relating to condom use need to
be stressed when designing educational campaigns
wherein condoms are a major tool in promoting safe sex.
Keith Henry, MD, Kent Crossley, MD
University of Minnesota Medical School...
[1] Conant et al. (1986) JAMA, Vol. 255, p.1706
[2] Pritchard JA et al. (1980) in Williams Obstetrics
ed. 16, NY, Appleton-Century Crofts, p. 1011
If the rate of failure per year of condoms as a mean of birth control
is 10%, then knowing the fraction of time that a woman is actually
fertile, what would be the estimated effective protection of condoms
against AIDS after ten years? The result of such statistical arithme-
tic is frightening.
Hope this helps.
Christian Labadie
mailto:[email protected]
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